Nobody Knows (Yet Again)

Citations · 6

• “Tariffs are taxes on imports, and someone has to pay them. This is true in the case of goods brought in from abroad, as well as goods made in the U.S. that incorporate imported materials or components.”

  p#41 · confidence 95%

• “between 1995 and 2020, U.S. consumer durable prices declined by 40% in real terms and total inflation averaged only 1.8% per year”

  p#42 · confidence 95%

• “There have been no large-scale trade wars in the modern era; thus, the theories are untested.”

  p#15 · confidence 95%

• “when tariffs were imposed on imported steel in 2018, 1,000 jobs were saved in the U.S. steel industry. But 75,000 jobs were lost”

  p#50 · confidence 95%

• “I consider the tariff developments thus far to be what soccer fans call an "own goal" – a goal scored for the other side when a player accidentally puts the ball into his own team's net. In this way, they're highly analogous to Brexit”

  p#80 · confidence 95%

• “fear of defaults (not unfounded) has caused risk compensation in the form of yield spreads to increase substantially, leading to a meaningful increase in the available yields on credit”

  p#87 · confidence 95%