Cockroaches in the Coal Mine
oaktreecapital.com · 2025-11-06 · tier T2
Source: Memo · oaktreecapital.com dated 2025-11-06. Auto-generated factual summary. Not investment advice. Verify before acting.
Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital argues that recent bankruptcies at First Brands and Tricolor, along with fraud disclosures at Zions and Western Alliance borrowers, reflect a predictable cycle rather than a systemic breakdown. He notes that sub-investment grade defaults averaging over 2% annually are normal, and that good economic times—16 years of growth and rising markets—create conditions for fraud by lowering due diligence standards and increasing risk tolerance. Marks emphasizes that credit risk is priced into yield spreads for a reason, and that superior credit analysis requires early detection of defects. He cites First Brands' complex off-balance-sheet financing ($11.6 billion in total obligations versus $5.9 billion disclosed) as a case study in how red flags—weak controls, litigation history, rapid M&A activity—can be assembled into a mosaic of concern. Marks concludes the issues are "systematic" (recurring behavioral patterns) but not "systemic" (hardwired into the financial system), and expects elevated prudence from lenders going forward.
Citations · 6
“My antenna goes up when things like that happen. And I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more”
p#2 · confidence 95%
“more than 2% of all bonds by value have defaulted in a typical year, and many more during crises”
p#15 · confidence 95%
“First Brands's total obligations are $11.6 billion (inclusive of $9.3 billion of debt) versus the debt level of $5.9 billion that had been disclosed during a financing process undertaken in July”
p#41 · confidence 95%
“it isn't ''systemic,'' but it is "systematic."”
p#35 · confidence 94%
“In good times, ambiguous developments are interpreted positively, and negative ones are easily brushed aside. And when times have been good for a while, the possibility of loss recedes from consciousness. Rather, missing out on potential gains and falling behind one's competitors becomes the dominant concern.”
p#19 · confidence 93%
“In good times, people are relaxed, trusting, and money is plentiful. But even though money is plentiful, there are always many people who need more. Under these circumstances, the rate of embezzlement grows, the rate of discovery falls off, and the bezzle increases rapidly.”
p#30 · confidence 92%
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Howard Marks
Oaktree memos · cycles and risk-first investing
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