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Data through Jul 28, 2026
Every entry below is an auto-generated factual summary of a public filing or disclosure. Not investment advice. Verify before acting.
Boyar warns semiconductor speculation mirrors dot-com excess while arguing Magnificent Seven valuations have become compelling for the first time in years.
Windowpast 90 days · 1 event · ending Jul 28, 2026
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GeneratedJul 28, 2026
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Longleaf warns markets have reached speculative extremes, with CAPE at historic highs and AI-driven multiples disconnecting from real FCF.
Windowpast 90 days · 1 event · ending Jul 28, 2026
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GeneratedJul 28, 2026
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Sequoia Fund underperformed the S&P 500 by 340 basis points in Q2 2026, adding to Bio-Techne, SAP, and ICON while trimming Sunbelt Rentals and Elevance Health.
Windowpast 90 days · 1 event · ending Jul 28, 2026
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GeneratedJul 28, 2026
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Letters and memos from the investors we follow. Each card links to our digest — the original publisher is one click away.
Boyar warns semiconductor speculation mirrors dot-com excess while arguing Magnificent Seven valuations have become compelling for the first time in years.
Recent podcast episodes from the investors we track — synthesized summaries and the moments worth hearing.
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Richard Clarida, PIMCO managing director and former Fed vice chairman, argued that the dominant inflation story in 2026 is not a labor-market wage spiral but an AI-driven capital spending boom. Higher demand for memory chips and software, he said, will add roughly 0.5 percentage points to core PCE inflation this year alone, while wage growth adjusted for productivity is running at 2018–2019 levels and is not a meaningful inflation driver. On the Fed, Clarida noted a striking shift in the FOMC's own projections: in March, 12 members penciled in a rate cut for 2026 and none wrote down a hike; by June's meeting under Chair Warsh, only one member favored a cut while nine favored a hike. PIMCO's baseline is no hike and no cut in 2026, with one or two cuts possible in 2027 if inflation trends back toward 2%. Clarida also flagged that Warsh has signaled the balance sheet — not just the federal funds rate — could be used as a tightening tool, a dynamic Fed watchers will need to monitor. Clarida was broadly dismissive of 1970s analogies, pointing out that the eurozone and Canada had already returned inflation to 2% before Middle East hostilities, and that the US shortfall from target is better explained by tariff effects and AI-related goods prices than by any wage-price spiral. He described the post-Liberation Day consensus of inevitable global recession as having been wrong, with 2025 global growth matching 2024, and closed by framing the larger backdrop as an era of geopolitical fragmentation that capitalist economies have so far proved more adaptable to than elite commentary predicted.
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Browse all →Longleaf warns markets have reached speculative extremes, with CAPE at historic highs and AI-driven multiples disconnecting from real FCF.
Sequoia Fund underperformed the S&P 500 by 340 basis points in Q2 2026, adding to Bio-Techne, SAP, and ICON while trimming Sunbelt Rentals and Elevance Health.
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PublishedJul 24, 2026 · 40min
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The hosts of The Investors Podcast argue that Perimeter Solutions (PRM) is an early-stage version of Transdime, built by the same founder Nick Howley alongside William Thorndyke, using a five-attribute acquisition framework: recurring revenue, secular growth tailwinds, high-value low-cost products, high returns on tangible capital, and accretive M&A. The fire-safety segment — fire retardants deployed via air tankers and ground crews — holds near-monopoly status on the USDA Forest Service qualified products list, and a new five-year Cal Fire contract adds a service-based recurring revenue layer that partially strips out wildfire-season cyclicality. The specialty products segment, now 63% of Q1 2026 revenue versus 25% in Q4 2025, was transformed by the $685 million acquisition of Medical Manufacturing Technologies (MMT), which makes precision machinery like stent crimpers for medical device manufacturers and is already exceeding its initial $140 million revenue and $50 million adjusted EBITDA underwriting targets. The hosts flag two structural concerns. First, a founder's advisory fee — structured like a 1.5% fixed fee plus 18% of stock-price appreciation above $10 — produced charges of roughly $200 million in 2024 and over $400 million in 2025, making GAAP net income deeply negative (trailing 12-month net income: -$190 million) even as the underlying businesses generate nearly $240 million in operating cash flow. Second, long-term debt sits at approximately $1.2 billion with an interest coverage ratio of 3x on a GAAP basis, rising to roughly 6x on an adjusted basis, leaving limited buffer if operations disappoint. On valuation, the hosts' base case applies 15% revenue growth and a 51% adjusted EBITDA margin, exiting at 17x EV/EBITDA, yielding an intrinsic value of roughly $46 per share after a 25% margin of safety — implying about a 7% return from current prices. A probability-weighted scenario across bull and bear cases produces roughly $53, or a 10% return. Neither host is adding PRM to their portfolio at current prices, but both note the business becomes more interesting if the stock falls to the low $20s.
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PublishedJul 23, 2026 · 1h 17min
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Steve Hu, head of research at Silicon Data, argued that the AI compute market is shifting from a phase dominated by a handful of frontier labs toward a fragmented, enterprise-driven inference market where models are substituted based on cost and task complexity. He framed this as structurally healthy but acknowledged the transition carries an "air pocket" risk where capex ROI from the old paradigm has not yet materialized while enterprise adoption of the new one is still slow. Hu's token expenditure index — an expenditure-weighted price index tracking 300+ models across public routing platforms — showed a plateau around June that coincided with equity market weakness in AI names. He clarified the index reflects substitution behavior, not outright demand collapse: price-sensitive developers and small enterprises are routing simpler tasks to cheaper open-weight models while reserving frontier intelligence for high-value work. GPU rental forward curves, by contrast, showed one-year contract prices rising monotonically through July even as short-term H100 spot rates dipped, which Hu read as evidence of firm underlying compute demand. On memory, Hu noted algorithmic efficiency gains from models like Kimi are compressing per-token memory needs, but argued Jevons-paradox dynamics — more use cases, longer context, voice and video modalities — will keep aggregate demand growing. He expects enterprise AI adoption to accelerate as cheaper models enable genuine token-maxing experimentation, producing a J-curve ROI pattern that will become more visible in coming quarters.
Highlights
“an expenditure weighted price index. You can think of it as almost like the PCE for AI”
“token maxing is fundamentally at odds with expensive tokens, right? Tokens are so expensive and also throttled. So you need to eventually to get to a state where tokens are cheaper.”
“the curve has also become like on the long end almost seeming a little bit in con tangle, right? Like, you know, sort of uh no longer downward sloping. What that means is that, you know, cloud providers, renters, the landlords of AI, you know, clouds are feeling comfortable not, you know, giving these long-term contract discounts”
“the favorite thing I look at on that this chart is actually the green line and not so much the blue line. Like just look at how strong that price is, right? Like people, there was all this talk about early in the year, like Michael Burry, like, oh chips are like only good for 2-3 years, the fast derectioning asset, blah blah blah. In reality, even the A100 chip rental rate is going up”
“every single time we have had a new, uh, innovation that seems to only, uh, increase. Essentially the, the, the people's willingness to try to use these models in more productive ways, uh, and every time you do that, you generate, you know, sort of longer context, you generate more data to be stored”
“I think there will be more, uh, you know, efficient, uh, licensable models or cheap models that come out of the US, right? Regardless of whether or not the Chinese models will be fully accessible or maybe in some sort of ways be made soft, you know, so to speak, uh, less accessible.”
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PublishedJul 22, 2026 · 43min
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