The Best of . . .
oaktreecapital.com · 2025-10-12 · tier T2
Source: Memo · oaktreecapital.com dated 2025-10-12. Auto-generated factual summary. Not investment advice. Verify before acting.
Howard Marks released a curated anthology of what he considers his best memos across 35 years, spanning October 1990 through August 2025. The collection is organized around two themes: enduring investment principles and chronicles of major financial events. On principles, Marks consistently argues that long-term success comes from avoiding poor years rather than chasing brilliant ones, that macro forecasting is largely futile, and that risk is not volatility but a range of possible outcomes requiring skilled judgment. On market events, the memos cover the dot-com bubble (2000), the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2008) — where Marks flagged excessive leverage, untested securitization, and too-easy capital access before the collapse — and the 2022 shift in interest rate policy he called a 'sea change' after 40 years of declining rates. Recurring themes include the pendulum of investor psychology swinging between fear and greed, the necessity of unconventional thinking for superior returns, and the observation that high valuations presage low subsequent returns. Marks also notes that in the 2008 crisis, excessive negativity signaled vast opportunity for contrarian investors, and that in credit investing, avoiding losers generally serves better than finding winners.
Citations · 6
“long-term investment success is best achieved through a string of consistently good returns and an absence of poor years, rather than by aiming for brilliant successes”
p#8 · confidence 97%
“excessive use of leverage, untested securitization structures, and too-easy access to capital. We all know what happened next.”
p#56 · confidence 96%
“Sea Change reviews the impact of 40 years of declining interest rates, brought to a halt by the need to fight post-pandemic inflation”
p#125 · confidence 97%
“This excessive negativity signaled to me that there were vast opportunities for the stalwart contrarian.”
p#65 · confidence 96%
“high valuations presaging low subsequent returns, and vice versa.”
p#140 · confidence 95%
“Gold has worked as a store of value solely because people agreed it would. That's not much of a foundation for a prudent investment.”
p#71 · confidence 95%
Follow this investor
Howard Marks
Oaktree memos · cycles and risk-first investing
More from Howard Marks
Browse all →- Howard MarksWhat’s Going on in Private Credit?
Memo
Marks traces direct lending's rise from innovation to bubble dynamics, warning of software debt risks and redemption pressures in public vehicles.
Original on oaktreecapital.com ↗2026-04-09
- Howard MarksAI Hurtles Ahead
Memo
Marks argues AI has reached autonomous-agent capability, fundamentally shifting from productivity tool to labor replacement, with profound implications for investing and employment.
Original on oaktreecapital.com ↗2026-02-26
Summarized by DailySharpe AI