Ruminating on Asset Allocation
oaktreecapital.com · 2024-10-22 · tier T2
Source: Memo · oaktreecapital.com dated 2024-10-22. Auto-generated factual summary. Not investment advice. Verify before acting.
In this October 2024 memo, Marks presents a unified framework for asset allocation centered on two core ideas: (1) there are only two true asset classes—ownership and debt—which differ fundamentally in nature and return characteristics, and (2) the essential portfolio decision is targeting the right offense/defense balance based on investor circumstances and risk tolerance. Marks notes that in the low-rate era (2009–2021), debt was unattractive; today, with credit yielding roughly 7% publicly and 10% privately, debt returns are competitive with historical equity returns. He argues this shift makes credit more suitable for investors seeking dependable returns with limited volatility, even if it means forgoing upside beyond current yields. Marks recommends investors research and implement a phased program to increase credit allocations, while cautioning that higher returns may emerge if market optimism recedes.
Citations · 6
“No one used that phrase when I joined the industry 55 years ago. Structuring portfolios was a pretty simple matter, generally following the classic "60/40" split.”
p#4 · confidence 95%
“Owners put their money at risk with no promise of a return... Lenders typically provide funds... and, in exchange, are promised periodic interest and the repayment of principal at the end.”
p#20 · confidence 95%
“investors should increase their allocations in this area if they are (a) attracted by returns of 7-10% or so, (b) desirous of limiting uncertainty and volatility, and (c) willing to forgo upside potential beyond today's yields to do so.”
p#73 · confidence 95%
“In the low-interest-rate environment that prevailed from 2009 through 2021, the expected return from debt was extremely low in the absolute and far below the historical return on equities, rendering debt relatively unattractive.”
p#36 · confidence 95%
“These returns, starting at roughly 7% on public credit and 10% on private credit, are competitive with the historical returns on equities.”
p#71 · confidence 95%
“the most important thing. For an investment program to be successful, the level of risk in the portfolio must be well compensated and fall within the desired range.”
p#31 · confidence 90%
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Howard Marks
Oaktree memos · cycles and risk-first investing
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