More on Repealing the Laws of Economics
oaktreecapital.com · 2025-06-18 · tier T2
Source: Memo · oaktreecapital.com dated 2025-06-18. Auto-generated factual summary. Not investment advice. Verify before acting.
Howard Marks contends that when governments attempt to override fundamental economic laws—supply and demand, incentives—through regulation, they produce worse outcomes than free markets. He illustrates this through rent control (reducing housing supply and mobility), California fire insurance regulation (leaving thousands uninsured after 2025 wildfires), and tariffs (raising consumer prices while potentially reducing competitiveness). Marks also critiques U.S. fiscal deficits ($1.8 trillion in 2024, or 6.4% of GDP) and Social Security's projected 2035 insolvency, arguing elected officials avoid difficult tradeoffs. He concludes free markets, while imperfect, produce better results than government mandates, though targeted interventions for national security or unfair trade practices may be justified.
Citations · 6
“Insurers were prohibited from using forward-looking catastrophe models to set rates for wildfire risk... Regulations also prevented insurers from raising premiums to reflect increased reinsurance costs”
p#13 · confidence 95%
“By the time of the 2025 fires, fewer than a quarter of affected properties were insured against fire.”
p#15 · confidence 95%
“In fiscal year 2024, for example, the U.S. ran a deficit of roughly $1.8 trillion, or 6.4% of GDP, in a time of prosperity.”
p#57 · confidence 95%
“That year is 2035. At that point, either (a) benefit payments will have to be cut so that they equal tax receipts (and it's estimated that receipts will be sufficient to pay only 79% of the promised benefits)”
p#66 · confidence 95%
“As a result, only 8% of our non-farm jobs are in manufacturing today, down from about 30% in 1950.”
p#44 · confidence 94%
“Tariffs are, primarily, an effort to cause goods to be made domestically even when equivalent foreign goods are cheaper or better (or both)... That protects domestic industries and domestic workers, but at the expense of domestic consumers (and global welfare).”
p#53 · confidence 93%
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Howard Marks
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