A Look Under the Hood
oaktreecapital.com · 2025-10-28 · tier T2
Source: Memo · oaktreecapital.com dated 2025-10-28. Auto-generated factual summary. Not investment advice. Verify before acting.
Marks observed a state pension fund board applying a two-by-two risk matrix that separates financial ability to bear risk from willingness to bear it—a distinction he found clarifying. The board ranked itself as having moderate willingness despite above-average ability, consciously accepting constrained returns to avoid extreme downside exposure. Marks endorsed this framing as more rigorous than typical industry practice. The board's stated priorities reinforced this discipline: achieving the actuarial assumption ranked first; beating peers ranked last. Marks argued this hierarchy is correct because pension plan success is absolute—paying promised benefits—not relative. He cautioned that short-term peer comparison remains necessary for staff evaluation, but only because no single-year or multi-year period free of market noise can isolate skill. Performance assessment requires a full market cycle spanning both bull and bear environments to distinguish genuine investment skill from mere risk bias. Marks also endorsed the board's skepticism toward volatility as a primary risk metric, though he acknowledged that contribution volatility poses real externalities for pension sponsors. The board's willingness to use 15–20% leverage and allocate 25% to illiquid assets reflected reasonable confidence in the plan's funding status and sponsor strength. Overall, Marks found the board and consultant asking the right questions and reaching defensible conclusions grounded in the plan's actual liabilities rather than peer optics.
Citations · 6
“the board members considered achieving the actuarial assumption the most important thing; beating the policy benchmark and having managers beat their respective benchmarks were secondary; and beating peers and popular indices like the S&P 500 were deemed relatively unimportant.”
p#52 · confidence 95%
“On the horizontal axis is the plan's ability to bear risk...On the vertical axis is the plan's willingness to bear risk – its attitude toward taking on risk and readiness to withstand the losses that might result.”
p#6 · confidence 93%
“Success for a defined benefit pension plan means being able to pay benefits and minimize the cost to the plan sponsor. Period. If a plan is unable to pay promised benefits, it's scant comfort that peer plans can't either.”
p#31 · confidence 95%
“an appropriate performance assessment period has to include both good times and bad. In other words, it should cover a full market cycle. That's the only way to distinguish investment skill from a mere bias toward aggressiveness or defensiveness.”
p#62 · confidence 95%
“in pure investment terms, there's no intrinsic reason for long-term investors to be concerned with volatility (as distinguished from the risk of permanent loss). Warren Buffett famously says he'd 'rather earn a lumpy 15% return than a smooth 12%.'”
p#37 · confidence 94%
“All board members agreed that it's impossible to foresee the future, and thus that the portfolio should be built to prepare for 'all environments' rather than base performance expectations on the ability to time markets.”
p#46 · confidence 92%
Follow this investor
Howard Marks
Oaktree memos · cycles and risk-first investing
More from Howard Marks
Browse all →- Memo
Marks warns direct lending followed the classic bubble pattern, with AI disruption now exposing weakened underwriting standards in software debt.
Sources & details
PublishedApr 9, 2026
- Memo
Summarized by DailySharpe AI