A Look Under the Hood
oaktreecapital.com · 2025-10-28 · tier T2
Source: Memo · oaktreecapital.com dated 2025-10-28. Auto-generated factual summary. Not investment advice. Verify before acting.
Marks attended a state pension fund board meeting where a consultant presented survey results on the board's investment philosophy. The board uses a two-by-two matrix to assess risk, plotting financial ability to bear risk against willingness to bear risk, yielding four postures: capitalizing, defensive, protective, and naive. The board ranked its own position as moderate willingness despite above-average ability, accepting constrained returns to limit downside exposure. Marks praised the board's priorities: achieving the actuarial assumption ranked first, beating peers last. The board ranked the Sharpe ratio last among performance metrics and favored normal market risks over opaque innovative strategies. Marks emphasized that short-term performance assessment requires relative benchmarks (peer comparison or policy portfolio), while long-term success depends on achieving the actuarial return assumption over a full market cycle spanning both bull and bear periods.
Citations · 6
“the board members considered achieving the actuarial assumption the most important thing; beating the policy benchmark and having managers beat their respective benchmarks were secondary; and beating peers and popular indices like the S&P 500 were deemed relatively unimportant”
p#52 · confidence 95%
“the board members ranked the Sharpe ratio last among six possible performance metrics and on average considered avoiding volatility in the sponsor's contributions less of a priority than the ability to pay benefits or attain fully funded status”
p#35 · confidence 95%
“the board as having a moderate willingness to accept risk despite the plan's above average ability to bear it (stemming from the plan's solid funding status and the state's strong economic performance)”
p#13 · confidence 95%
“A substantial majority of the members said they're comfortable with using leverage at 15-20% of the plan's assets. I think this is reasonable.”
p#47 · confidence 92%
“All board members agreed that it's impossible to foresee the future, and thus that the portfolio should be built to prepare for "all environments" rather than base performance expectations on the ability to time markets.”
p#46 · confidence 95%
“an appropriate performance assessment period has to include both good times and bad. In other words, it should cover a full market cycle. That's the only way to distinguish investment skill from a mere bias toward aggressiveness or defensiveness.”
p#62 · confidence 94%
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Howard Marks
Oaktree memos · cycles and risk-first investing
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