Letter to the Investment Committee on Private Equity (Ben Inker)
gmo.com · 2026-05-21 · tier T1
Source: Letter · gmo.com dated 2026-05-21. Auto-generated factual summary. Not investment advice. Verify before acting.
GMO's analysis of 700 leveraged buyouts since 1981 reveals that private equity has shifted toward riskier targets: companies that are more leveraged and less profitable than public small-cap peers, concentrated heavily in software (40% of recent deals vs. 5–10% in public indices). The firm argues PE portfolios face genuine downside risk from economic shocks, AI disruption, and software derating—risks not obviously compensated by returns. Additionally, performance persistence among PE managers has largely disappeared since 2000, meaning even well-resourced institutions struggle to consistently identify top-quartile funds. GMO recommends active hedging through long high-quality/short low-quality equity strategies rather than passive index pairing, and cautions that PE allocations should be driven by conviction in specific managers, not target percentages.
Citations · 6
“over the past 10 years, public-to-private LBOs have been heavily skewed toward software, which accounts for 40% of the recent deals closed”
p#23 · confidence 95%
“public-to-private LBOs rank a full quality decile below small caps, who in turn are almost four deciles junkier than the S&P 500”
p#20 · confidence 95%
“persistence of performance has fallen notably since 2000, and more so for private equity than venture capital. A particularly relevant finding is that the interim performance of funds that have not completed their life cycles is entirely unhelpful in predicting future fund returns”
p#47 · confidence 93%
“Low-quality stocks, on the other hand, have consistently underperformed both the broader market and high-quality stocks despite having a consistently high beta”
p#31 · confidence 92%
“This leaves the aggregate U.S. equity portfolio for our institution with a 57% weight in companies smaller than the S&P 500 and a 43% weight in S&P 500 constituents. 'Indexing' the aggregate of public and private equity owned companies would assign an 82% weight to the S&P 500”
p#29 · confidence 95%
“we have collected, cleaned, and analyzed data for roughly 700 formerly listed developed-market companies that were taken private via a leveraged buyout from 1981 to 2025”
p#11 · confidence 94%
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Jeremy Grantham
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