3Q25 Partners Fund Commentary
southeasternasset.com · 2025-09-30 · tier T1
Source: Letter · southeasternasset.com dated 2025-09-30. Auto-generated factual summary. Not investment advice. Verify before acting.
Longleaf Partners Fund returned -0.33% in 3Q25 versus the S&P 500's 8.12%, extending year-to-date underperformance to -0.41% versus 14.83%. The fund's managers acknowledge trailing the broader market in late-stage bull conditions but argue this reflects disciplined avoidance of overvalued assets. The portfolio trades at roughly 10x free cash flow per share and holds concentrated positions in companies with real assets, growing FCF, and management teams executing value-creation strategies. Top holdings include CNX Resources, Mattel, Kraft Heinz, IAC, EXOR, and FedEx, each representing 5–6% of assets. Managers highlight specific catalysts: CNX's hedges maturing and Deep Utica resource potential; Kraft Heinz's planned split into two businesses; FedEx's Freight unit separation; and Rayonier/PotlatchDeltic's announced merger. The fund's P/V ratio sits in the low-60s%. Managers flag market excess in AI-related stocks, noting that since ChatGPT's launch, AI stocks accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns despite weighted-average FCF per share growth of less than 30% for the Magnificent 7 from FY22 to FY25 estimates.
Citations · 6
“3Q: Partners Fund -0.33, S&P 500 8.12”
p#4 · confidence 95%
“AI related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022.”
p#17 · confidence 95%
“the weighted average market cap of the Mag 7 has gone up roughly 3x, while weighted average FCF per share has gone up less than 30% from FY22 to estimates for FY25.”
p#18 · confidence 95%
“3 Year: Partners Fund 13.58, S&P 500 24.94, Russell 1000 Value 16.96”
p#4 · confidence 95%
“circular supplier financing straight out of the Lucent Technologies 2000 playbook and some crazy IPO action, such as the revenueless Fermi being valued at more than $10 billion”
p#18 · confidence 93%
“our investments are grounded in real assets and brands producing growing free cash flow (FCF) per share. We believe the Fund's ~10x FCF today can go to a mid-teens FCF multiple”
p#6 · confidence 92%
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Mason Hawkins
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· 2025-Q4
Longleaf Partners Fund returned 2.93% in 2025, trailing the S&P 500's 17.88%, citing insufficient big winners in a momentum-driven late-cycle market.
Original on southeasternasset.com ↗2025-12-31
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