The Boyar Value Group’s 4th Quarter Letter 2023
boyarvaluegroup.com · 2023-12-31 · tier T2
Source: Letter · boyarvaluegroup.com dated 2023-12-31. Auto-generated factual summary. Not investment advice. Verify before acting.
Boyar Asset Management's January 2024 letter cautions that the S&P 500's 2023 advance was heavily concentrated: the top 10 stocks generated 86% of gains despite representing 32% of the index, trading at 26.9x forward earnings versus 17.1x for the rest of the market. The firm notes the S&P 500 ended 2023 at 19.5x forward earnings, above the 30-year average of 16.6x. However, small-cap value stocks trade 2.6% below their 20-year average P/E, offering relative value. The letter emphasizes that investors who sat out 2023 missed substantial gains, and that timing markets is typically detrimental to long-term returns. It highlights that since 1950, no 20-year period has produced average annual S&P 500 returns below 6%, and urges staying invested despite current optimism levels.
Citations · 6
“The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500, which account for a staggering 32% of the index, were responsible for 86% of the S&P 500's gains in 2023.”
p#1 · confidence 95%
“the 10 largest stocks by market capitalization in the S&P 500 were selling for 26.9x earnings (fwd.), against an average valuation (for the index's 10 largest stocks) of 20.2x since 1996. What's more, they currently sell at a multiple 38% higher than the rest of the market”
p#1 · confidence 95%
“small-cap value is selling ~2.6% below its 20-year average”
p#1 · confidence 95%
“41% of the companies in the Russell 2000 are unprofitable, and earnings before interest and taxes cover a much smaller percentage of their interest expenses than among their large-cap brethren.”
p#1 · confidence 92%
“since 1950, there has never been a 20-year period when investors did not average a gain of at least 6% per year in the stock market.”
p#1 · confidence 95%
“Going into 2023, the consensus among Wall Street strategists was that a recession was imminent, and that the S&P would advance a mere 6%.”
p#1 · confidence 93%
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Mark Boyar
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