CCP’s Earnings Have Compounded at 18% Per Annum
marcellus.in · 2025-02-18 · tier T2
Source: Memo · marcellus.in dated 2025-02-18. Auto-generated factual summary. Not investment advice. Verify before acting.
Marcellus Investment Managers' CCP portfolio achieved 17.8% EPS CAGR over FY19-24, which closely tracked the portfolio's 17.4% pre-fees performance, demonstrating that earnings growth—not P/E multiple changes—drove long-term returns. Portfolio modifications enhanced results; had the team reduced positions in Dr. Lal Pathlabs, Asian Paints, and Bajaj Finance by half in early 2022, returns would have been 80-100bps higher. The portfolio shifted toward 'enterprising compounders' with higher reinvestment rates and growth prospects, though this transition occurred 12-18 months later than optimal. Despite a weak macro environment, the portfolio reported healthy profit growth in 9MFY25. Management expects recent drawdowns to be temporary and anticipates healthy EPS growth over the next 3-5 years.
Citations · 6
“17.8% EPS CAGR over FY19-24 (computed using reported earnings of annual rolling portfolio cohorts), which is the primary driver of the portfolio's 17.4% (pre-fees) portfolio performance”
p#1 · confidence 95%
“had we reduced positions in Dr. Lal, Asian Paints and Bajaj Finance by half on a timely basis, CCP's (pre-fees returns) would have been 80-100bps higher since inception”
p#1 · confidence 95%
“We realized this about 12-18 months later than we could have. These enterprising compounders have had, and are likely to have, higher growth rates compared to the 'linear compounders'”
p#15 · confidence 92%
“the portfolio continuing to report healthy profit growth in 9MFY25 despite a weak macro environment and given our expectations of healthy EPS growth for the portfolio over the next 3-5 years, we expect the recent drawdown to be a temporary phenomenon”
p#1 · confidence 94%
“With India's nominal GDP growth rate hovering around the 10-12% mark, fundamentals of the broader stock market (and hence of the Nifty50 Index as a benchmark) are not likely to be more than 2-3% points higher than the economic growth rate. Hence, after delivering an EPS CAGR of 24.3% over FY21-24, we expect mean reversion for the Nifty50's EPS growth in future”
p#24 · confidence 93%
“Changes to the portfolio over time have enhanced its earnings profile. For instance, had we left the 2019 or 2020 Cohorts unchanged, the subsequent EPS CAGR of the portfolio constituents would have been around 11%-13% instead of the 17.8%”
p#1 · confidence 93%
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Saurabh Mukherjea
Marcellus · Indian quality compounders
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