How Volatile Funds Cost Investors Dear
marcellus.in · 2022-02-01 · tier T2
Source: Memo · marcellus.in dated 2022-02-01. Auto-generated factual summary. Not investment advice. Verify before acting.
Marcellus Investment Managers contends that portfolio volatility triggers emotional decision-making cycles of fear and excitement that cause investors to underperform their funds' returns. The firm cites an Axis Mutual Fund study showing Indian equity fund investors underperformed fund returns by up to 5.5% annually, and the ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK) as a cautionary example: despite 30%+ CAGR over five years, ARKK investors collectively lost money since 2014 because inflows peaked after the 2020–2021 rally and outflows accelerated during 2021 losses. Marcellus argues that two portfolios delivering identical 25% CAGR over three years will produce different investor outcomes if one achieves it with low volatility and the other with high volatility, because low volatility reduces emotional trading. The firm's Consistent Compounding PMS has historically exhibited significantly lower volatility than Nifty50 on rolling 12-month basis, lower downside frequency, and a median return around 30% annually versus 18–24% for Nifty50, allowing investors to benefit from compounding without emotional interference.
Citations · 6
“investor returns in Indian equity funds have been consistently lower than fund returns across different periods by as much as 5.5% annually”
p#5 · confidence 95%
“ARKK investors as a whole, have lost money since the fund's launch in 2014, even though the fund has delivered more than 30% CAGR over the past 5 years”
p#5 · confidence 95%
“fund flows into ARKK shot up exponentially after the zone of excitement was created in second half of 2020 and first half of 2021. Towards the second half of 2021, the fund had started experiencing significant outflows when it delivered significantly negative returns”
p#8 · confidence 95%
“Marcellus' Consistent Compounders PMS has historically delivered significantly lower volatility compared to the broader markets over a 12-month period”
p#11 · confidence 95%
“the median return (which is measured where the height of the curve peaks) is much better for our PMS than it is for the Nifty50 Index i.e. ~30% per annum vs ~18-24% for the Nifty50”
p#12 · confidence 95%
“Both Portfolio A as well as Portfolio B deliver the same 25% CAGR over three years. However, Portfolio A delivers the 25% CAGR with high volatility while Portfolio B delivers the same rate of compounding (25%) with low volatility. Despite the same long term CAGR of the two funds, investors are likely to make more money via Portfolio B”
p#9 · confidence 94%
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