I Did Not Predict What Is Going on in Privates
aqr.com · 2026-03-25 · tier T2
Source: Memo · aqr.com dated 2026-03-25. Auto-generated factual summary. Not investment advice. Verify before acting.
An investor pushes back against credit for predicting private equity's recent downturn, clarifying that his prior commentary focused on long-term structural issues, not short-term performance. He acknowledges private equity stocks have been hit and private credit has faced scrutiny, but distinguishes between his actual positions and the narrative others have attached to them. His core arguments: private equity managers can generate genuine alpha through operational improvement (though fees and correlation to public markets remain questions), both private equity and private credit serve real economic functions, and long-term expected returns may face headwinds as structural features of the asset class. He expresses caution about retail access to privates but emphasizes his concerns are structural and gradual, not predictive of imminent disaster.
Citations · 5
“the stocks of major private equity managers have been hammered. Private credit has been all over the news”
p#1 · confidence 95%
“private equity managers have the ability to add a kind of alpha a quant can only dream about — actually affecting the companies they own”
p#4 · confidence 95%
“my worries about long-term expected returns (as a bug becomes a feature) are just that, long term. Again, not really a market call”
p#6 · confidence 94%
“I do have serious misgivings about bringing privates to retail right now”
p#5 · confidence 95%
“both private equity and private credit are important asset classes serving a real function in the economy”
p#5 · confidence 94%
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Cliff Asness
AQR Perspectives · quant value and factor investing
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