Antti Is (Still) Trying to Understand Return Expectations

Citations · 5

• “consensus forecasts of individual investors and equity analysts extrapolate too much from recent years' returns or growth. Good times in the rearview mirror are over-extrapolated”

  p#5 · confidence 94%

• “institutional investors and bond investors in general appear more rational and less extrapolative than individual investors and equity investors”

  p#9 · confidence 92%

• “it pays to bet against unrealistic growth optimism at the market level or with single stocks – this is why the hard contrarian strategies beat the easy multi-year extrapolation in the long run”

  p#10 · confidence 93%

• “expected returns found in academic research can differ starkly from what surveys reveal about investors' subjective return expectations. The differences can get extreme at extreme valuations”

  p#3 · confidence 95%

• “academics focus on the required returns in the denominator of the present value relationship. In contrast, many practitioners focus on the numerator”

  p#1 · confidence 93%