The Benefits of Timing are Inversely Correlated with the Quality of Fundamentals
marcellus.in · 2022-01-03 · tier T2
Source: Memo · marcellus.in dated 2022-01-03. Auto-generated factual summary. Not investment advice. Verify before acting.
Marcellus Investment Managers argues that for high-quality companies with strong fundamental growth (15-20%+ CAGR), perfect timing of share purchases yields only 2-3% alpha versus regular investing, whereas weaker companies show 5-10% timing alpha due to higher volatility. For high-quality portfolios, rebalancing after price dislocations generates 5-10% annual returns, far exceeding timing benefits. The firm advises existing investors not to wait for mean reversion in quality stocks post-rally, citing Asian Paints' sustained 20%+ annual gains after FY10 recovery versus Nifty50's mean reversion. For fresh income, systematic periodic top-ups outperform waiting for corrections by 3-5% annualized returns.
Citations · 5
“even perfect timing of entry points (i.e. investing every single year at the year's lowest share price) does not generate more than 2-3% alpha”
p#9 · confidence 95%
“For companies whose share price compounds at a weak rate (say less than 10% CAGR), perfect timing of entry points can generate 5-10% alpha”
p#10 · confidence 95%
“The quantum of benefit from such rebalancing of portfolios with high quality stocks is as high as 5-10% per annum, and hence it far outweighs the potential benefits of perfect timing”
p#18 · confidence 95%
“Asian Paints's consistently delivered high share price performance in the years after the FY10 recovery i.e. +20 to +30% in FY11, FY12 and FY14, and more than +30% in FY13 and FY15”
p#24 · confidence 95%
“investors who waited for a market correction before deploying top-ups from their recurring income into Marcellus' CCP PMS would have experienced a significant drag (of at least 3-5% on annualized returns, if not more) vs SIP based investments”
p#29 · confidence 95%
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Saurabh Mukherjea
Marcellus · Indian quality compounders
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