CCPs use more ‘S-curves’ to elongate their fundamental compounding

Citations · 6

• “the average lifespan of an S&P 500 company in the US has fallen from 67 years in the 1920s to just 15 years today”

  p#8 · confidence 95%

• “with 90% penetration of oral care, 60% market share of Colgate, and rising frequency of consumption, the saturation of the addressable market now offers limited growth potential”

  p#11 · confidence 95%

• “When organizations expand, they become increasingly complex and difficult to manage, so they build bureaucracies and inefficiencies”

  p#14 · confidence 94%

• “6-8 decades of consistent growth for Asian Paints, Berger and Pidilite; and 2-3 decades of growth for HDFC Bank, Titan and Page Industries”

  p#24 · confidence 95%

• “even if two companies have the same slope of the S-curve (i.e. rate of growth of fundamentals), greater longevity of the business has a disproportionate impact on the company's fair value (25x P/E multiple vs 250x P/E multiple)”

  p#45 · confidence 95%

• “At Marcellus, we assess and quantify the longevity of S-curves of a business using our proprietary 'longevity framework'”

  p#47 · confidence 93%